Sinner and Sabalenka Enter Australian Open as Clear Favorites
The main draw is set in Melbourne, where Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka carry heavy expectations into the 2026 Australian Open, their paths lined with rivals hungry to disrupt the script.
In the humid buzz of Melbourne Park on January 16, 2026, the Australian Open main draw has locked in, positioning Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka as the undisputed betting favorites to claim their fifth Grand Slam titles. Sinner’s -120 odds mark him as the first men’s player since Novak Djokovic in 2023 to enter a major as the odds-on choice, a nod to his three-peat bid on these hard courts. The weight of that favoritism hangs in the air, sharpening every practice stroke as the tournament’s electric pulse begins to build.
Sinner shoulders three-peat pressure
Carlos Alcaraz, the men’s No. 1 seed, trails at +175 as the only real contender, setting up a potential clash where Sinner’s heavy topspin forehand could clash against Alcaraz’s explosive inside-out redirects. Djokovic sits at +1600, his down-the-line backhands a lingering threat that demands Sinner refine his 1–2 patterns to avoid early traps in the draw. Daniil Medvedev at +2500 and Alexander Zverev at +3500 follow, their flat strokes testing the Italian’s defensive range on the Plexicushion surface.
In DraftKings’ Big Two vs. the Field market, Sinner and Alcaraz stand at -1100, with the rest at +550, reflecting bettors’ conviction that one of them will lift the trophy. FanDuel and theScore Bet data show 88% of the handle on the pair, Alcaraz drawing slightly more at the latter, as public money flows toward their anticipated tactical duel of crosscourt exchanges and net rushes. Taylor Fritz at +6000 and Ben Shelton at +7000 pull long-shot action, their booming serves echoing potential upsets in the outer courts’ roar.
Sabalenka chases redemptive power
Aryna Sabalenka enters at +185 to reclaim the title she won in 2023 and 2024, her odds tighter than the +225 from 2025 when Madison Keys stunned her in the final. Iga Swiatek follows at +550, her all-surface game a counter to Sabalenka’s raw force, while Amanda Anisimova at +750 and Elena Rybakina at +800 attract sharp bets for their slicing serves on the grippy hard courts. Coco Gauff‘s line drifted to +1000 from +700, signaling adjustments in her speed-based returns amid a crowded top five.
The women’s draw opens wider, with Keys at +3000 eyeing a repeat through her steady baseline play that could force Sabalenka into uncomfortable one–two combos. BetMGM, FanDuel, and theScore Bet report strong action on Anisimova, while DraftKings highlights Rybakina’s appeal, per sportsbook insights. Jessica Pegula‘s handle hits 19.3% at BetMGM after a major bet shifted her odds from +3300 to +2200, her versatile groundstrokes poised to exploit any dip in the favorite’s focus during night sessions.
Melbourne tests favorites’ resolve
Sinner’s path demands mental steel against Alcaraz’s drop shots and Djokovic’s experience, his inside-in forehands evolving to handle the tournament’s variable bounces under Rod Laver Arena’s glare. Sabalenka’s aggression, tempered by last year’s loss, incorporates more underspin to disrupt rhythms, turning potential semifinals into battles of endurance and precision. Long shots like Fritz and Shelton add undercurrent tension, their serves gaining bite from the heat, while Pegula’s surge hints at draw volatility.
As the first major of 2026 unfolds, the favorites’ journeys weave through crowd energy and tactical shifts, each rally building toward climactic confrontations that could redefine their seasons. Bettors’ heavy lean underscores the narrative, yet Melbourne’s unpredictability ensures every point carries the thrill of disruption, propelling Sinner and Sabalenka toward glory or hard lessons ahead.