Alcaraz confronts Tokyo’s draw with champion’s poise

Under the crisp autumn lights of Ariake Coliseum, the draw for the Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships revealed Carlos Alcaraz‘s path on Monday, pitting the Spaniard against Sebastian Baez in his debut at this ATP 500 hard-court event. Fresh from dethroning Jannik Sinner in the US Open final to claim his sixth major and reclaim the world No. 1 spot in the PIF ATP Rankings, Alcaraz steps onto these medium-paced surfaces with a blend of exhilaration and quiet resolve. The humid air carries the faint echo of Flushing Meadows, but Tokyo demands a fresh script, where every baseline exchange tests the fusion of power and precision amid the crowd’s measured roar. ### Reclaiming edge against Baez’s grit Alcaraz holds a head-to-head series lead over Baez, a psychological foothold as he acclimates to the court’s quicker bite compared to clay’s embrace. The Argentine’s baseline tenacity, built on probing crosscourt topspin, could stretch rallies and expose any lingering jet lag, forcing the top seed to deploy explosive one–two combinations—serve arcing inside-out to the forehand, chased by a down-the-line rip—to shatter defensive walls. Yet Baez’s low-skidding underspin backhands might keep balls low and unpredictable, compelling Alcaraz to vary with net rushes or slice approaches that skid and stay short, turning the opener into a tactical dance under the stadium’s pulsing energy. This first-round recalibration feels vital, channeling US Open triumph into sustained fire without the complacency that shadows peaks. ### Tiafoe and Ruud sharpen semifinal stakes Eighth seed Frances Tiafoe awaits in the quarterfinals, his thunderous serve and net forays a proven threat after reaching the Tokyo final in 2022, starting against a qualifier to build rhythm on these hard courts. Alcaraz, drawing from their rivalry, will target returns down the tee to disrupt Tiafoe’s flat bombs, countering with inside-in forehands that punish wide setups and exploit the American’s occasional lapses in depth. Meanwhile, Casper Ruud, a titlist in Madrid this year, opens against Japanese wild card Shintaro Mochizuki, his steady crosscourt backhands and high-kicking serves translating clay consistency to hard-court endurance. The Norwegian’s projected semifinal clash with Alcaraz looms as a test of legs and lungs, where the Spaniard might lean on underspin slices to neutralize Ruud’s topspin arcs, preserving energy in a draw that amplifies the season’s toll through early October. ### Seeds fuel bracket’s rising tension Seventh seed Denis Shapovalov, a two-time Tokyo semifinalist, resumes against Daniel Altmaier in his first tournament since his marriage to Mirjam Bjorklund, his lefty spin and risk-laden down-the-line shots injecting wildcard volatility into the top half. Second seed Taylor Fritz, who won the trophy in Japan in 2024, faces Canadian Gabriel Diallo upfront, his booming serves setting up potential quarterfinal fireworks with fifth seed Tomas Machac, the Czech entering versus a qualifier. Fritz’s flat-hitting prowess could echo through the bracket, indirectly pressuring Alcaraz by elevating the explosive standard. Third seed Holger Rune meets former Next Gen ATP Finals presented by PIF champion Hamad Medjedovic in round one, with Alex Michelsen possibly next and sixth seed Ugo Humbert—who opens against Jenson Brooksby—in the quarters, Rune’s all-court ferocity blending inside-in forehands with tactical drops to embody the generational surge. As the tournament unfolds from late September, Alcaraz’s path crystallizes into a narrative of adaptation: can he weave Tokyo’s unfamiliar tempo into another layer of dominance, or will the hard courts reveal the subtle fractures of a champion’s unyielding chase?